Monday, May 21, 2007

Inkling market on the GDP growth of China vs. Germany

One of the markets from all the interesting ones in inkling markets tries to predict whether China's GDP will grow beyond Germany's by 2008 (not adjusted for PPP). My first reaction based on a very generic feeling I got from reading general media was of slight surprise that it wasn't already bigger, given all the incredible economic metrics China keeps pushing out.

But taking a look at some historic data and doing some projections actually makes it seem quite difficult to happen, as Germany's economy is supposedly slowly picking up and rumors have it that China's economic growth will eventually cool down and flatten out. Even if all were to continue at its current rate, it does not seem all that likely that China's GDP would surpass Germany still for a few years.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Mr.Ero Carrera,

You are way off on your forecast. China's gdp is much bigger than Germany now considering the fall of the Euro and big gap in growth between Germany and China.

Johnny Tan

Ero Carrera said...

Don't know. I haven't revised the calculations with up-to-date data. Those are some numbers I ran a good while ago to get a taste of their possible evolution. Definitely the current economic situation might have changed the projection quite a bit.